Michael over at the All Things Diz blog has some great analysis of the current anecdotal reports of light attendance at Disney World despite the Disney Company’s announcements that things are, mostly, fine.
The other demographic they don’t break out is per resort occupancy, just overall occupancy rates. My guess is that, as usually would be the case, the Value resorts are stuffed to the gills, the camping side of the campground is booked solid, and it’s not until you get into the Moderate and Deluxe resorts that you start to see occupancy drop.
If Wikipedia is right (though we could cross reference with The Unofficial Guide if we really wanted too), then by my calculations there are about 22,216 hotel rooms distributed as follows:
* 8,324 Value Rooms (about 37% of the total)
* 7,089 Moderate Rooms (about 32% of the total)
* 6,803 Deluxe Rooms (about 30% of the total)
And yet, still no progress on the Pop Century Legendary Years area to expand Value resorts. Instead we get more DVC. Michael, where does DVC fit in this? Basically steady business for the mouse.
My personal feeling is that things are down about 5-10%. But think about taking five percent of the cars off the road during rush hour; that’s all it takes to dramatically improve speeds. The same thing applies for queues and walkways at the theme park. Disney parks are such huge capacity swallowers, that you just can’t see most of the people most of the time because they’re inside attraction queues or in the shows. It takes that extra 5% for the crowds to really start showing up.