Over at BusinessWeek Ronald Glover lays out the reasons Jobs won’t sell Pixar to Disney.
Buying Pixar would cost Disney a bundle, maybe $8 billion or $9 billion and could send Disney’s stock into a tailspin. When the rumor first surfaced on Jan. 4, the share price promptly dropped 1.5% in the 45 minutes before the market closed that day. A deal of that size would be a huge drag on Disney’s earnings…
For what it’s worth, my money is still on Disney buying 10%-15% of Pixar, taking the traditional distribution fees and a much smaller share of the world-wide profits plus character and merchandise rights for themeparks and Disney Stores only.
I think this would be the best deal for both. Pixar gets to keep more of its profits but still gets the assistance it needs from Disney (story advice, distribution, character recognition). Disney gets more than the average distribution deal, can continue using the Pixar characters in its themeparks, and is invested in the future of Pixar so is likely to continue providing assistance. Frankly, I don’t know what’s holding a deal like this up unless they’re negotiating over basis points.